So here's the deal, the folks over at penntrack made their preview unavailable to non subscribers. I'm not a huge fan of them sinking that low that they have to exclude previews, but it is there business decision and let's face it, I'd be nothing without penntrack. But here's the deal, this is a business and if penntrack isn't going to make a preview everyone can see than I will, and hopefully that will increase my business. Sorry Don, you know I love you.
Anyway, down to business. Now I have already outlined my predictions and some specifics about who I like and who I don't like so it's hard to decide exactly what things to throw down in a preview. And since I'm not a professional, nor do I really think or plan what I'm going to say before I say it, this preview will probably seem a little choppy. But basically to help you follow along, I'm just going to outline my thoughts on how I see the race playing out and what to expect and things like that.
So here we go. Just to be different from penntrack I'll go individuals first then teams. The first mile is not tough in the sense of hills, its tough in the sense of getting out hard and holding your posistion. You have to get out smart however because if you go out too fast you will pay for it in the Alohas. The way I see it, things should be fairly tight out front. Magaha will definitely get out, Steiner will be up there, Runco, Kennedy and Kutcha should all get out well. The leaders at the mile will most likely be Quinn and Hibbs, barring some type of fall or unforseen district 4 kid with a lot of balls but not enough talent doing something crazy. Jaskowak may also mix it up and sieze control early, but I feel that strategy may not suit himReally the placing at the mile doesn't matter too much as long as your not in 100th and your willing to wait a bit to make your move. I think Willig and the Great Valley guys will hang back, while the Henderson guys should all be out pretty fast again. I could definitely see Russell going out too hard and falling off or hanging on and running amazing.
There will be more names in that front pack, but I just listed the ones I see making a significant difference on the effect of the race.
After Steiner makes his move at the mile or so (he always makes a huge surge mid race), its going to be a matter of who chooses to follow. Magaha has never raced Steiner before so this should create an interesting twist in the plot. You have a lot of guys who are going to want to follow suit but I think it will all come down to Magaha's decision. I think Magaha does decide to go with him, he's confident and he's in very good shape.
Meanwhile, Willig and Norris and some other guys will probably sit back, which will definitely help them in the long run. hard to predict the behavior of the D2 and D6 guys. I expect the Altoona kids to probably go with the move, Wilkinson and maybe Burke will hang back.
Jaskowak should definitely cover the move, and probably Hibbs and Quinn will also follow suit. But this move will take a lot out of guys that aren't used to running this way. It plays right in to Steiner's hands to run like this. Everyone else is running his race.
The D7 guys have seen this kind of thing play out on numerous occassions, so they shouldn't be too phased. That should be a nice advantage to them. I think Groh may make a big move here too to keep up with Steiner. A young guy with tired legs after his big win about a week ago, probably won't fair well from making this move either.
After the hills I think Steiner will have broken a lot of spirits. I see only Quinn being able to be close, Jaskowak also in the mix, but definitely hurting. I see this as a real breakthrough race for Conner. I don't see Hibbs hanging, but if he does he will be dangerous for the win. I see Magaha dropping back decently far here, but over the last 1000m I see him coming back up.
Magaha may catch Steiner before the finish line, but Steiner has been known to have a little bit more left in the tank by this point and I think he holds off Magaha's late move, giving him the victory. Tough to imagine Magaha outkicked, but hey if I'm picking against him there has to be some situation where I think he'd lose and this is the best I can do. I see guys like Willig really cleaning up the scraps here. Norris too, definitely could have a big finish, and lastly Coyle should take advantage of anyone who went out too fast. Wilkinson may also too.
For a complete list of how I think the race will play out at the finish line, check my top 50 predictions a few posts down.
Now on to the teams. I expect a big bounce back from Mt Lebo. I think they got the wake up call and I am hoping they just didn't react well to the bad course conditions, not that they are burned out or anything like that. North Allegheny though is rounding into classic states form. They used to choke at this meet, now they are running clutch. Steiner out front helps them snag second. Hopefully Seel and Appman and company can pull through a bunch of 40s type places.
I'm worried about Henderson. They are so young out front and so inexperienced on this kind of stage with this kind of pressure. They came through at districts but states is a different animal. Great coaching and a great system, so they can easily prove me wrong, but it doesn't mean I'm not scared.
O'Hara should win unless they choke. I'm not seeing a huge day from Savage or their freshman James, but I do think the other guys will run well, especially Billotta. I think that should seal their state championship hopes. PCL teams have run this course very well and I don't see that changing for either side. LaSalle may surprise with a top 5 finish and mix it up with the other schools.
North Penn and Great Valley are both high on my list of teams I'm confident in so they could surprise but I just don't think they are as good as these other teams so as much as I like them, I don't see them really finishing higher than 5-8 ish.
Other D7 teams may surprise up in the mix and maybe there will be a Tunkhannock this year that sneaks into the top 10. I wish I had a team for you that I could point to to do this (maybe Grove City? but I don't really think so), but its definitely possible.
Hope this covers everyone's fix for a preview that they may not have gotten from penntrack.
-train
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